Friday, November 07, 2008

PH must win! Well, almost.....

It's simple going into tonight's game against Hermitage.

PH must win in order to live to play another day. Well.....

A win over Hermitage will put them into the Division 5 Playoffs, most likely at the #4 seed, jumping over Douglas Freeman.

BUT, there is ONE gleam of hope if PH loses tonight.

If Mills Godwin upsets Douglas Freeman tonight at Godwin, PH would slide in as the #4 seed.

My calculations on VHSL points (which will make your hair hurt, BTW) show me Cosby, the current #6 seed, cannot rise above 25.9 in the ratings after tonight, and PH cannot go below 26.2.

So, root for the Patriots; and in the back of your mind as Plan B, root for the Eagles!

Just pretend you are rooting for a team over at Liberty Middle. They're the Eagles, too. :)

Tonight's Regular Season Finales!

Tonight’s Schedule (Week 10)

Patrick Henry at Hermitage, 705pm, WHAN (1430)

Lee-Davis (2-3, 3-6) at Atlee (1-4, 2-7)
Henrico (2-3, 3-6) at Hanover (3-2, 6-3, 2nd in Division V)

Deep Run (5-1, 8-1) at J.R. Tucker (3-3, 3-5)
Douglas Freeman (3-3, 6-3, 4th in Division V) at Mills Godwin (2-4, 3-6)

Meadowbrook (5-1, 8-1) at Dinwiddie (6-0, 8-1, 1st in Division V)
Monacan (5-2, 7-2, 3rd in Division V) at Manchester (5-2, 7-2)
Huguenot (1-6, 2-7) at Cosby (4-3, 5-4, 6th in Division V)
Petersburg at Prince George

Highland Springs (5-0, 6-3) at Varina (5-0, 9-0)
Colonial Heights 0-6, 2-7) at Matoaca (3-3, 4-5)
Hopewell (1-5, 2-7) at Thomas Dale (5-1, 5-4)
George Wythe (0-7, 0-9) at Clover Hill (5-2, 7-2)
Midlothian (2-5, 2-7) at James River (2-5, 2-7)
Brunswick at Powhatan
Goochland at Amelia
King George at Caroline

John Marshall (1-5, 2-7) at Thomas Jefferson (0-6, 0-9) , 1 p.m.

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

PH vs. Freeman---who gets the #4 seed?

Is there a scenario by which Patrick Henry defeats Hermitage Friday night but STILL does NOT make the Division 5 Playoffs? Consider the following:

Patrick Henry would get 24 points for beating Hermitage plus 14 bonus points for the seven Hermitage victories. PH would also pick up 2 points for Lee-Davis defeating Atlee, the Freeman-Godwin game, one point for Hanover if they defeat Henrico (likely), one point for Deep Run defeating Tucker (I really feel sorry for the Tigers) and another point for John Marshall defeating Thomas Jefferson on Saturday (also likely).

24 + 14 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 45 points

Douglas Freeman would get 24 points for beating Godwin, six extra points for their three wins, then 2 points if James River beats Midlothian at home (probably), two points Saturday for the winner of the JM/TJ game, one point for Deep Run over Tucker, one point regardless of the PH/Hermitage outcome.

24 + 6 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 36 points

Now......if Atlee upset Lee-Davis, that gives Freeman an extra point, since they defeated the Raiders, while PH would still get two. Then if Highland Springs upsets #1 Varina, give 'em two more points. That is now 39.

Any other points possible? No.

So, at best, it's 45 to 39, PH in points for week ten. More likely it will be either 45 to 36 or 38.

Let's say Varina wins and it's 45-36. Now, let's say PH LOSES. They lose 12 points off the loss, plus a point for each Hermitage win. That would only be 8 points instead of 14.

12 + 8 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 27 points.

And there you go.

The Patriots win, and they're in. Lose, and Douglas Freeman goes. Which would be a shame considering how the Patriots performed AT Freeman in week five.

PH can say: "But they got a FORFEIT win!!!"
Freeman can say: "But they lost to John Marshall!!!"

And thus exposes the negatives of the VHSL playoff system; noted, a system that can never be perfect unless EVERYONE goes into the post-season and plays on the field. And there's not enough time to do that.