Monday, November 05, 2012

DIVISION 5 SCENARIOS.....

After doing some calculating, postulating, hair-pulling, and Advil popping, I present to you the 1st (and last) Annual "What If Division 5 Playoff Scenario Show".....

Midlothian has a conundrum on its hands, but it's not insurmountable.

Right now they have 164 points via win/loss and 44 rider points.  208 total.

A win over Manchester is worth 24 points, then 12 rider points for each of the Lancers' 6 wins.  36 big points.

As for other rider points, Powhatan and Monacan, two of their wins, have finished their regular seasons. No chance at extra points. Benedictine, of course, doesn't count, as we'll be dividing the final point total for Midlothian by 9, not 10.

They WILL get two points from either George Wythe or Huguenot simply because they play each other on Friday, so 38 now with a win. Cosby likely takes care of James River, so they get one point for a Cosby win, instead of two for a James River upset.  Now we're at 39.

They'll grab another point when LC Bird beats Clover Hill, but that's another lost shot at two points from a defeated opponent, this time the Cavaliers.  We're at 40.

40 is the maximum they can get unless there are two monster upsets (James River over Cosby and Clover Hill over LC Bird).

248 points divided by 9 equals 27.556.

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Hanover currently has 180 points via win/loss and 59 rider points. 239 total.

A win over Glen Allen earns them 24 points, then 4 rider points for Glen Allen's two victories.  28 points.

Then, they will get two rider points from the Deep Run/J.R. Tucker game, having beaten both opponents. A PH loss to Hermitage yields nothing. They'll get one point out of the Highland Springs/Varina game no matter the outcome. They get 2 points if Atlee upsets Lee-Davis, only 1 if it's the other way around. They'll get two points from the Henrico/Armstrong game no matter the outcome.

So, 6 guaranteed rider points, 7 if Atlee wins.  35 points total.

274 points divided by 10 equals 27.4. This is based on an Atlee win.  So, you see, even that isn't enough to prevent Midlothian from taking the fourth seed away with a Manchester win. The ONLY way Hanover outpoints Midlothian if they both win that I can see is there are NO upsets going Midlothian's way explained above.....and Patrick Henry must beat Hermitage. Those two unexpected points for beating PH would make it 276, which divided by 10, is 27.6 and the Hawks are in.

So, from what I can tell, Hanover must win AND get help from Manchester to ensure a playoff berth.......

Atlee enters week 10 with 168 points for the 5-4 record, and 55 rider points from their various teams, for a total of 223.

A win over Lee-Davis is mandatory, and they need help. 

The win would give them 24 points, then 12 bonus points for L-D's six victories. That's 36. A Deep Run win over Tucker gives them 2 more, a Freeman win over Godwin would provide 1. They'll get two from the Henrico/Armstrong winner, 1 point from the Highland Springs/Varina winner.  What's left?  PH beating Hermitage for a surprising two and.....Hanover.  One point from a Hanover win is meaningless to them, they must have Glen Allen beat Hanover.  They also must have Manchester beat Midlothian, certainly more possible than the Glen Allen/Hanover scenario.

If Midlothian and Hanover lose, and Atlee wins......

Midlothian would end with 230 points divided by 9 games for a 25.556 rating.
Hanover would end with 261 points divided by 10 games for a 26.1 rating.


An Atlee win over Lee-Davis puts them at 259 points with a guaranteed minimum of three bonus points from the Henrico/Armstrong winner and Highland Springs/Varina winner.  That's 262, which, divided by 10, is 26.2.

So, there's the road to the playoffs for the Raiders, that I can see.

P.S.---What if Hopewell loses to Prince George?  They start week 10 with 176 points for the 6-3 record, and 64 rider points for a total of 240. A loss would yield 12, then 4 bonus points for what would be the Royals four victories.  That's 256. They'd get 2 crucial points for a Cosby win over James River, 1 if Lee-Davis eliminates Atlee, Brunswick is done so no points there, 1 point if Meadowbrook beats Matoaca (2 if Matoaca upsets....doubtful), 2 guaranteed points from the Thomas Dale/Colonial Heights winner, 1 point if Dinwiddie beats Petersburg, 2 if the other way around.

Likely scenario?  God only knows....let's say 2 from Cosby, none from an Atlee win, 1 from Meadowbrook, 2 from the Dale win and 1 point from a Dinwiddie win....that's 262 points, divided by 10 games for a 26.2 rating.

So, there IS a scenario by which Atlee could end up tied for 3rd with Hopewell at 26.2.

My head hurts......:) :)

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